Cross-strait relations: under the ocean surface the undercurrent of alert

Abstract: The recognition of the "1992 consensus" Ma Ying-jeou won, many commentators believe that the victory of Ma Ying-jeou on behalf of the "1992 consensus" of victory. In fact, the "1992 consensus" between Taiwan and the election results is not a simple causal relationship. "Stability" is a good sign, especially in the moment, but when someone is no longer reminds us that "Taiwan independence" exists, I am afraid that the relationship between the surface will continue to improve from the initial goal of our lopsided.

In the general election in Taiwan, recognize the "1992 consensus" Ma Ying-jeou won there, so many commentators and the media that Ma Ying-jeou’s victory on behalf of the "1992 consensus" of victory. Logical basis for this conclusion is very simple, Ma Ying-jeou to recognize the "1992 consensus", so that the victory of Ma Ying-jeou described the "1992 consensus" is the mainstream of public awareness of Taiwan, the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen as denying the "1992 consensus" and lose off election. However, in contrast with the facts, such a conclusion exposed many problems, but these problems illustrate the "1992 consensus" between Taiwan and the election results is not a simple causal relationship exists between the two, or other factors, when these factors are reduced or lost, the "1992 consensus" and the relationship between the results of the election will weaken or disappear. Ma Ying-jeou of the ruling will continue to bring new changes in Taiwan society, these changes "to achieve reunification," the ultimate goal may not have a positive impact.

First, it can recognize the "1992 consensus" to help the KMT win in this election, but compared with the last election, the KMT did not win more easily, but is more difficult. Four years from 2008 to 2012, the KMT and the DPP’s support continued to narrow the gap.2008 Taiwan election, Ma Ying-jeou and Vincent Siew is the result of the vote was 58.45%, over Frank Hsieh and Su Tseng-chang portfolio of nearly 17 percentage points, while the 2012 election, Ma Ying Wu with Kerry leading with only 6 percentage points. We can say that the failure of the DPP in 2008, largely dragged down by the Chen Shui-bian administration corruption, and Chen Shui-bian during his tenure to take "radical independence" of the cross-strait policy, making the Taiwan Strait military conflict could erupt at any time. Ma Ying-jeou of the ruling in four years, with significant improvement in cross-strait relations, in politics, the mainland began to give Taiwan more international political space, economic, ECFA’s signing makes greatly benefited from the economic development of Taiwan’s trade with the mainland, and these are mostly the result of trade, Taiwan’s unilateral benefit. This is a heavy blow by the global financial crisis, Taiwan, is tantamount to timely and economic achievements of Ma Ying-jeou of the main campaign capital. In addition, a clean image of Ma Ying-jeou for extra points. On the contrary, many comments that Tsai denied the "1992 consensus" exists, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party team lacks experience, especially to improve the economy, and the DPP can not always get rid of corruption scandals, its image in the short term is difficult to improve. These are the main reason for the failure of the DPP. But even in such circumstances, the Democratic Progressive Party in this election still get high ratings, and not a lot of media rendering of the "fiasco" ending. What conditions do not have nearly the DPP can get support for this election, which shows the "1992 consensus" to help Ma Ying-jeou won the presidential election is all too simple. If you follow the above reasoning, the "1992 consensus" to help stay in power under the KMT will become more difficult.

The second problem is the "1992 consensus" to help the KMT win is based on what? "1992 consensus" is to recognize the nature of the "one China" and "one China" principle is opposition Democratic Progressive Party has been denied and the cross-strait relations principles. According to Ma Ying-jeou won the election judge in the "1992 consensus" of the Taiwan people’s support, has become Taiwan’s mainstream public opinion, then how to explain from 2000 to 2012, three Taiwanese election, the rising support for the Green Camp phenomenon, how to interpret the conditions of extreme lack of DPP election is still nearly half of the election to get support for. It can be seen, the real factors that influence the election results are based on the "1992 consensus" based on the mainland to Taiwan’s economic support. In this election, the DPP Tainan ticket bunker in its traditional areas of the vote far less than expected. This shows that there are external factors that interfere with the objective will of the voters, and economic impact of these areas is considered a major factor in voting. In 2008 the global financial crisis, Taiwan’s export-oriented economy has been a huge impact, can revive Taiwan’s economy is a key test of Ma’s ability to govern. The issue of revitalizing the economy, Taiwan can only rely on the mainland, Taiwan to the mainland in 2009 up 42.1% of export dependence, if we can sign ECFA, Taiwan’s exports to the mainland will further increase. In this context, to revive the economy and improving people’s livelihood in addition to safety outside of Taiwan’s top priority, which promote cross-strait relations improve, the situation in the Taiwan Strait can remain stable. Therefore we can say the global financial crisis caused by economic recession seriously affected Taiwan’s economy, based on the "1992 consensus" on the basis of the mainland’s economic support to become Taiwan’s only resort. In this context, the DPP’s cross-strait policy has always been to the mainland can not be trusted, but not without worry about the people of Taiwan will affect Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party came to power to continue to benefit from the mainland, which in difficult economic circumstances are intolerable of. Therefore, prior to Taiwan’s economic recovery, how to improve relations with the mainland, access to financial support will continue to affect the attitude of Taiwan to the mainland a major factor.

Finally, the financial crisis and Taiwan’s economy is highly dependent on the mainland as its economic recovery will be weakened, while the DPP obtained in the general election also shows rising support for more people began to identify with the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan cross-strait policy, which is the ultimate goal of reunification is a very negative phenomenon. In fact, the Taiwan people more worried about the DPP came to power, can not effectively control its degree of development of the mainland policy, progress and implementation of Taiwan’s security and a serious impact on the economy, so "no unification, no independence, no use of force "Taiwan’s political stage is the best choice. Under the influence of these factors, recognize the "1992 consensus" of the KMT won the election it is normal, but it simply interpreted as the "1992 consensus" is not conducive to an objective understanding of the victory of Taiwan’s public opinion changes. After four democratic elections, Taiwan’s society has begun to abandon the democratic transition period, vicious competition, began to enter a virtuous cycle, the Democratic Progressive Party also began to reflect on how to change the domestic and foreign policies, to get more public support, this trend will inevitably lead to Taiwan’s political parties In its own position and views on the future development of convergence, the difference is the difference between skills and abilities.

At this stage, the mainland, Taiwan and the United States is the best policy options to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait relations, but if these sensitive issues in Taiwan’s political parties have tended to mature, to take a "practical, vague" Taiwan policy, rather than and then made an independent advocate extreme, then the cross-strait relations will indeed be in a very long time to maintain the status quo. "Stability" is a good sign, especially in the moment, but when someone is no longer reminds us that "Taiwan independence" exists, I am afraid that the relationship between the surface will continue to improve from the initial goal of our lopsided.


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